As many of you might remember, I have a predisposition to following NASCAR every year.  Many, including John Podhoretz, would say that's a character flaw. But nevertheless, there are some parallels between the NASCAR season and the presidential primary race, especially in this first month of the long campaign.

At the end of the season, NASCAR awards the championship not to the driver who wins the most races.  Each race awards points, more for first place down to a few for last.  But at the end of the year, there is a ten race playoff for the top twelve drivers who've amassed the most points. 

The path to the final twelve, and then to become the NASCAR champion, is relatively simple - don't crash.  If you finish each race, win a few, have some top five finishes, a bunch of top ten finishes, and you can avoid wrecking the car week in and week out, you're going to have enough points to compete for the big prize at the end of the year.

If the exit polls hold, Mitt Romney is going to win Michigan by somewhere around six points, giving him two wins and two second place wins in the first four states.  In NASCAR terms, he's easily leading in the chase to the Cup, although early in the season.

When we start getting to winner take all states, where only the winner statewide walks away with delegates, the NASCAR analogy doesn't quite fit as well, but so far, in states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan and South Carolina, delegates are awarded proportionately to how well each candidate places.  The NASCAR model holds true there. 

Again, if the exit polling holds, you'd have to conclude that two wins and two seconds makes you the frontrunner going into Florida and Super Tuesday. How are the other GOP candidates doing?

Mike Huckabee has one win, one distant third, and in Michigan, we're hearing he'll take 15% of the vote, which is a very distant third.  In fact, in NASCAR terms, a 15% showing in Michigan tonight for Huckabee will be equivalent to hitting the wall and finishing a lap behind the leaders.

John McCain had engine problems that led to a poor showing in Iowa, won New Hampshire, and left the race in Michigan before the checkered flag waived. 

Mitt Romney has the money equivalent of being a NASCAR organization like Hendrick or Roush Racing, meaning he's going to be able to compete through the long season with a quality car built by a quality team.  Huckabee and McCain are running cars in the equivalent of a single-car owner, meaning not heavily financed. These individual teams in NASCAR will win a race here and there, but over the course of a 31 week season, the lack of money and investment takes its toll, and the teams with more financing always rise to the top.

At the end of the night, all the people who thought it was time for Romney to give up after the loss in New Hampshire have to think again about the coronation of John McCain as the GOP nominee.  McCain was supposed to win Michigan because of the independent and Democratic meddling in this open primary state.  But a funny thing happened along the way.  Mitt Romney became a much better candidate.