From this morning's Morning Joe on MSNBC with Mika Brzezinski.



I'm not going to use the word conspiracy, but I think there's a conspiracy out to get me.

I'm calling this press conference to say I'm not going to run any negative ads, but if I were to run negative ads, this is what they would look like. 

I wonder if South Carolinians are going to see a pattern here with Governor Huckabee.  And by the way, conspiracies are usually done in secret.  The attacks are not on Governor Huckabee himself but on his non-conservative record as governor in Arkansas, and his very disturbing views on foreign policy.  And the attacks are very public.  There's no conspiracy about it, and it frankly makes Huckabee look a little thin-skinned in seeing criticisms as conspiracies.

As many of you might remember, I have a predisposition to following NASCAR every year.  Many, including John Podhoretz, would say that's a character flaw. But nevertheless, there are some parallels between the NASCAR season and the presidential primary race, especially in this first month of the long campaign.

At the end of the season, NASCAR awards the championship not to the driver who wins the most races.  Each race awards points, more for first place down to a few for last.  But at the end of the year, there is a ten race playoff for the top twelve drivers who've amassed the most points. 

The path to the final twelve, and then to become the NASCAR champion, is relatively simple - don't crash.  If you finish each race, win a few, have some top five finishes, a bunch of top ten finishes, and you can avoid wrecking the car week in and week out, you're going to have enough points to compete for the big prize at the end of the year.

If the exit polls hold, Mitt Romney is going to win Michigan by somewhere around six points, giving him two wins and two second place wins in the first four states.  In NASCAR terms, he's easily leading in the chase to the Cup, although early in the season.

When we start getting to winner take all states, where only the winner statewide walks away with delegates, the NASCAR analogy doesn't quite fit as well, but so far, in states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan and South Carolina, delegates are awarded proportionately to how well each candidate places.  The NASCAR model holds true there. 

Again, if the exit polling holds, you'd have to conclude that two wins and two seconds makes you the frontrunner going into Florida and Super Tuesday. How are the other GOP candidates doing?

Mike Huckabee has one win, one distant third, and in Michigan, we're hearing he'll take 15% of the vote, which is a very distant third.  In fact, in NASCAR terms, a 15% showing in Michigan tonight for Huckabee will be equivalent to hitting the wall and finishing a lap behind the leaders.

John McCain had engine problems that led to a poor showing in Iowa, won New Hampshire, and left the race in Michigan before the checkered flag waived. 

Mitt Romney has the money equivalent of being a NASCAR organization like Hendrick or Roush Racing, meaning he's going to be able to compete through the long season with a quality car built by a quality team.  Huckabee and McCain are running cars in the equivalent of a single-car owner, meaning not heavily financed. These individual teams in NASCAR will win a race here and there, but over the course of a 31 week season, the lack of money and investment takes its toll, and the teams with more financing always rise to the top.

At the end of the night, all the people who thought it was time for Romney to give up after the loss in New Hampshire have to think again about the coronation of John McCain as the GOP nominee.  McCain was supposed to win Michigan because of the independent and Democratic meddling in this open primary state.  But a funny thing happened along the way.  Mitt Romney became a much better candidate.

John McCain spent some time pandering in Michigan today at a town hall meeting.  Among his opening remarks was this little gem about Michigan's fight to keep their water resources.



Attention all Super Tuesday California primary voters - President John McCain will work to make sure Arizona successfully outsteals California in stealing Colorado's water. 

Arizona and California's border is the Colorado River, not the Arizona River.  It's not his water.

Just a little bit later, McCain spoke out on the most important issue for conservative Republicans, climate change.




So if McCain's wrong, we've got nothing to lose in embracing the whole climate change package...that is, nothing to lose except overtaxed and overregulated businesses and jobs.  But then again, this is Michigan.  What's another anvil dropped on the economy there among friends?

About 60 minutes into the debate, fresh from a commercial break, Chris Wallace T-boned Mike Huckabee, calling him on the fact that taxes were higher in Arkansas when Huckabee left office than when he first became Governor, and why did that happen.  Huckabee gave a minute and a half answer, and did not deny the Wallace assertion. Instead, he gave a laundry list of what he spent the money on, everything from schools to roads, and how much better the state was for it.

 But what really frosted me was the fact that he threw a little jab at my Minnesota brethren in there, saying, looking at my record in Arkansas, with the roads we had to build, “no bridges fell in Arkansas.”  As soon as the video hits YouTube, I’ll find it and post it. 

 If you look at any Electoral College map, you know that whoever the Republican nominee is, he will have to expand the map to cover the upcoming loss of Ohio to the Democrats.  The greatest possibility of a Republican pick-up is in the Upper Midwest, most likely Minnesota, Wisconsin or Iowa.  How in the world does Mike Huckabee expect to help flip Minnesota when a Democrat operative finds that soundbyte and uses it to alienate the Minnesota voters? 

 It was a cheap shot, and an ill-advised one, especially for a candidate who should have at least a marginal understanding of what he’s going to need to do to win the White House in November.

Earlier Thursday afternoon, comes this video from CNN's Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.




"So I am the anti-racist, becuase I am the only candidate, Republican or Democrat, who would protect the minority against these vicious drug laws."

Very nice. Ron Paul is saying see how not bigoted I am, because I would legalize drugs, freeing all the imprisoned black people.  Uh, Congressman Paul, see that hook coming in from stage right?  It's coming for you.

Very quietly, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is meddling in the GOP primary field.  A couple of weeks ago, there was a press release that indicated Rick Tyler, long time communications director for Gingrich, was taking a leave of absence from his day job, and helping out the communications effort for Mike Huckabee.

Mark Levin over on The Corner writes today that Newt and Dick Morris are both helping the Arkansas populist former governor, Newt behind the scenes, Morris publicly.  The question is why is Newt doing this?

When the Tyler move became public, the theory developed that Newt still envisions himself running for the presidency, but didn't think this cycle was the right time to run because of the aura of invincibility of Hillary Clinton.  Newt would then benefit by helping out the perceived weakest of the GOP candidates, ensuring that come January '09, the Republicans would begin their four year wandering through the desert.  This would set up Newt as the White Knight in 2012, riding to the rescue after President Hillary screwed things up in her first term. 

But after Iowa last night, another theory is beginning to develop.  Hillary's aura of invincibility is no longer there.  Barack Obama is now the frontrunner, and although very charismatic, he's an empty suit, especially when it comes to foreign policy.  Newt may now be thinking that there's a window of opportunity this cycle.  All that needs to take place is for Huckabee to take a couple of the early states, Rudy take a couple of the big states, McCain maybe taking a state here or there, and Romney to take a couple, and you have yourself a brokered convention.  If the Republicans can't decide on a clear frontrunner by the convention, could we potentially see the White Knight riding in a little earlier than expected into Minneapolis/St. Paul this September? 

Lost in the Mike Huckabee hysteria that is sweeping the land...at least the land of Iowa, is just how odd Huckabee senior advisor Ed Rollins has become.  Here is the video of his victory celebration with Fox News' Chris Wallace, who asked him about the now-famous lunch he had in Iowa, discussing the presidential field as he saw it. 



In case you missed the initial controversy, here is the Amanda Carpenter column on Townhall.com.

After the column went viral, she appeared on Hugh's show and added this little bit.  

HH: Tell me, what did he say about Ann Romney, if anything. 

AC: He did mention…I’ve got to say, I didn’t hear all of it. There was some talk about her condition, and it was in the context of they were really feeling that they were getting too much negative spin thrown at them, and then there were comments about how they felt righteous and entitled to the presidency. So that’s how that all went together.  

HH: But did they actually bring up Ann Romney’s MS? 

AC: That was talked about briefly.  

HH: And did he characterize it…how? 

AC: It just seemed to be in the context of unfairness, and why were they talking about this. Like I say, I didn’t hear all that specifically. I just know that they were talking about Ann Romney, and her condition was mentioned.  

HH: Did he threaten to go negative in South Carolina? 

AC: There was talk about doing negative ads. There was a weird joke that was being told about running the confederate flag up on the Capitol steps of South Carolina. I don’t know what that joke was about. They both laughed. Like I said, I was just listening. I wasn’t sure it was Ed Rollins until he identified himself as Ed Rollins when he called Lou Dobbs, and then I could run a picture check to make sure. So otherwise, I would have gone up and talked to him, but I wasn’t sure it was him until he identified himself. Then, I could look up his picture.  

HH: Well, Amanda, that’s a big scoop on Drudge, and I can’t imagine them mocking Ann Romney for her MS, or bringing it up in any context. But Ed Rollins is what he is. He’s Mike Huckabee’s senior campaign advisor.

Nice guy, that Ed Rollins.  Kind of makes Karl Rove look warm and fuzzy, doesn't he?Keep in mind, all you Hucksters out there, that Ed Rollins gave us Bill Clinton when he fell for another populist with character, H. Ross Perot, and managed that campaign just well enough to ciphon off enough George H. W. Bush voters in '92 to give Bill Clinton the White House with a stunning 43% of the popular vote.  Granted, Rollins didn't stay with that campaign all the way to November, but he definitely did his part to suck the life out of the Bush reelection effort. 

After watching the candidates give their post-mortem speeches Thursday night, Hillary Clinton was still able to manage a smile here and there, even though she probably suffered the worst damage of any top tier candidate in either party.  Why? Because Ed Rollins is still out there unwittingly blocking and tackling for the Clintons.

And unless Republican voters don't figure out populism isn't the wave of the future for the GOP, Rollins could go down in history as the man who in large part helped to usher in two President Clintons.

It's Caucus Eve, and after a seemingly endless period of campaigning, punditry, debates, analysis, counter-analysis, polling, conventional wisdom and spin, Iowans will finally have their say as to who they want to be the nominees from the two parties Thursday night. 

Conventional wisdom at the beginning of December said that Hillary would probably eke out a victory over a surging Barack Obama, and Mike Huckabee might beat previous frontrunner Mitt Romney by double digits, so impressive was the Huckasurge.  But here we are, 30 days and several holidays later, and conditions on the ground are lending themselves to a double victory for Mitt Romney in Iowa on the 2nd.

A literal plethora of gaffes by Governor Huckabee, many on foreign policy, an issue that the Republican nominee, whoever it ends up being, simply cannot afford to get wrong when the country is at war, have led to a decline in support in the same polls that led to Huckabee's rise to frontrunner status.  In addition, once closer scrutiny followed his rise to the top, Huckabee commited several unforced political errors that made several political watchers scratch their heads, wondering how Huckabee would ever handle the pressures of the presidency if he couldn't handle the pressures of his Iowa primary campaign.

The net result is that Iowa is now a dead heat, which means that whoever has the best statewide organization or ground game, whoever turns out the most Caucus-goers on a sub-freezing, windy night in Iowa, is going to win.  From Ron Fournier's AP analysis piece yesterday, 

—He has a paltry political organization in a state that values the ground game, according to an informal survey of GOP county chairs and co-chairs. "I haven't seen much of a sign of him or his people," said Jim Conklin, chairman of the Linn County GOP.

—He can also be disarmingly honest. Asked whether Romney should stop running negative ads, Huckabee said, "I'm not going to try to run his campaign."

"I'm having enough trouble running mine."

Romney has many more resources in Iowa, and he's running a smarter campaign than Huckabee.  Advantage: Romney.

Barack Obama has opened up a lead in Iowa outside the margin of error, and the Hillary camp has begun to downplay the importance of a victory in Iowa.  If Obama does go on to pick up the win Thursday night, it's another win for Mitt Romney.

Next week in the New Hampshire basket, the one in which John McCain has put his boomlet eggs, Mitt Romney is in a statistical dead heat with the feisty Arizona Senator.  But when you actually look at the numbers, Romney's support has remained around 30%.  McCain has come from out of nowhere to within the margin of error because of perceived weakness in the other GOP candidates, but also because New Hampshire is an open primary state, where independents can come crashing the GOP's primary party.  In fact, McCain's numbers nationwide tend to be highest in the states where there is an open primary.  In closed primary states, McCain is nowhere, statistically. 

Obama's popularity also comes largely from independent voters. Again, going back to conventional wisdom from a few weeks ago, the thought was that McCain possibly sneaks a win in New Hampshire if Hillary holds on in Iowa and beats Obama, thereby depressing Obama's independent support in New Hampshire, causing them to drift over into the Republican primary to meddle there.

But if recent polling in Iowa holds, and Obama wins Iowa going away, independents may take another look next Tuesday and see New Hampshire as the state in which they could continue to drive the stake into the heart of the Hillary Clinton campaign.  If the independents stay with the Obama wave, it's going to be very hard to McCain to keep up his momentum in New Hampshire.  

But in the words of our good friend, Mark Steyn, "Who knows, huh?" 

If you read the story in Politico earlier today about what the Democrats are secretly trying to do with Appropriations Chair Robert C. Byrd, trying to back seat him and replace him as chairman with Washington State dim bulb Patty Murray, the following montage of the very senior Senator from West Virginia announcing the omnibus appropriations bill coming tonight in the Senate sure could be entered as evidence why it needs to be done. 



Here's all you need to know about what the Senate is trying to do tonight.  The Democrats are hopelessly behind in getting their mandatory appropriations work done for the year.  They can't get it all done individually, so they've packaged the remaining 11 of the 12 into one big bill, loaded with too much spending and too much pork, but almost acceptable to President Bush and the Republicans in the Senate.

Anytime there is an omnibus anything in the Senate, conservatives should get nervous. But there are three amendments that are going to be voted on tonight that will determine whether this bill gets passed or not. 

The first one is by Mitch McConnell, and is an amendment that will provide an additional $70 billion dollars for the war effort, without any timetable for withdrawal stipulations.  My sources tell me that if this amendment doesn't get tacked onto the bill, the whole measure is dead. 

The second amendment is authored by Wisconsin anti-war Senator Russ Feingold, which is another trip to the McConnell woodshed, demanding that there is an effective declaration of surrender and retreat from Iraq.  This measure is almost doomed to fail, as every one of the other 60 plus attempts by the Democrats this year to cut and run in Iraq.  If, somehow, this gets 60 votes and gets attached to the bill, the omnibus appropriations bill is dead.

The third amendment tonight is going to be a Feingold-lite withdrawal measure by Michigan Senator Carl Levin.  It also is a deal-breaker, if it gets cloture tonight. 

There has been a lot of fury from the border security conservatives who read the Washington Times story Tuesday morning, claiming that Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is behind language to defund the Southern border fence, something that her staff has been denying all day long.  The money is still there.  The language is the same language that's been passed by the Senate three times this year.  But that's one of the things that's wrong with omnibus bills.  There's too much precedence for funny business being buried before being openly debated. 

The likely scenario is Feingold and Levin gets beat tonight, McConnell gets attached, and the bill gets passed tonight.  If McConnell's amendment goes down, then Harry Reid has a mess on his hands.  He will be looking at the end of the year, his first in the majority, with a government shutdown looming that will be his fault.  He won't have time to break these things out individually, and his only other option is to start serving up continuing resolutions as a stopgap, and punt the issue down the road, a procedure becoming very familiar to Reid.  

We'll update this thread as we see what the Senate does tonight.

UPDATE #1 - 7:31PM EST:  The Feingold Amendment has now been thoroughly debated and voted on.  24-71, meaning that the majority of Democrats in the Senate have cut and run on the cut and run resolution.  They've surrendered on their effort to surrender in Iraq.  Here's video of Ted Kennedy, one of Feingold's seemingly few remaining allies, in action, right before the vote, trying to rally the members of the Senate to raise the white flag.





Nice try, Senator Kennedy.  You came up a wee bit short of the 60 you needed.

Update #2 - 8:40PM EST:  As expected, the Carl Levin authored Feingold-lite cut and run bill out of Iraq just failed in its quest to get the 60 votes necessary for passage, 50-45.  Now the Senate Democrats have to decide how bad they want to get something done this year by voting for the McConnell $70 billion dollar war supplemental.  Voting is going on right now.

Update #3 - 9:00PM EST:  Mitch McConnell's vote just came in at 70-25.  If you had any doubts about who runs the Senate, tonight should have been very, very clear.  The new omnibus approps package now goes back to Nancy Pelosi, who has to hold her nose and vote for it, because she now realizes she's alone at the end of the do-nothing Congress plank.  Harry Reid just left her side. 

While the Democratic presidential candidates lined up to pander one last time to those likely to participate in the Iowa Caucus in January, there was a background story going on in Washington that you may not have heard much about. 

Harry Reid and the rest of the Senate Democrats had been working for over a week to try and pass a couple of tax increases disguised as an energy bill.  Mitch McConnell and the conservative wing of the Senate Republicans weren’t buying it, and neither was President Bush, who had threatened to veto the bill if passed.  

McConnell, who quietly had himself another fine day Thursday, told Reid that he would clear the energy bill, but only if the two tax increases buried in it were removed.  The utility rate increase was removed, but the tax increase proposal was actually raised over the last week, to almost $22 billion dollars.  It was a deal killer, and everyone on both sides of the aisle, in both Houses of Congress, knew it.  Yet Senator Reid inexplicably chose to make Thursday his latest last stand on energy reform.  

Now since the Democrats insisted on keeping the tax increase in the bill, it meant that they were going to have to get 60 votes to invoke cloture before they could try and pass it.  Then the bill would be sent to a certain death by presidential veto.  It was a doomed bill, and a clear waste of everybody’s time.  In other words, Thursday was just a typical day in the Senate under Democratic leadership, 2007.  How did the vote go?  59-40-1, one shy of invoking cloture and clearing the hurdle to full passage in the Senate. 

Remember the Democrats on stage in Iowa mid-day Thursday? Four of them are current United States Senators: Barack Obama, Hillary ‘Hand-raiser’ Clinton, Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd.  They were all called back to Washington Thursday morning to cast this energy vote, and then they all bailed out immediately after the Senate session to return to the debate stage in Iowa.  Anyone out there able to calculate the energy expended from four round-trip airplane rides to D.C. and back for a failed vote on a polluted energy bill?  What about the carbon footprint left by the Democrats Thursday alone, and the irony of Hillary Clinton trying to get the ridiculous debate moderator to do a hand-raising of the candidates on who believes in global warming and mankind’s impact on it? 

Later in the afternoon, Harry Reid finally gave up on his tax increase, stripped it out of the bill, and resubmitted it for cloture.  It passed 86-8.  Clinton, Dodd, Obama and Biden couldn't be in two places at once, so they didn't get to vote. Now the bill goes back to the House, where they've unfortunately wrapped up their one vote workweek this week, so they’ve all scattered home for a long weekend.  Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Majority Leader Reid are now so frustrated at their respective lack of leadership skills in their respective chambers that they are now taking shots at each other.  Nothing says Merry Christmas to Republicans like Democrat politicians engaged in a circular firing squad.   

For those of you who continue to think that fate is already predetermined that in January ’09, Hillary Clinton will reside in the White House with a bigger House majority and a filibuster-proof Senate, I’m just not seeing it.  Hillary, while still most likely a lock for the nomination, increasingly looks more vulnerable as the weeks pass by.  Democrats in both Houses of Congress are clearly in disarray, while the Republicans seem to have stiffened their spines as Iraq continues to stabilize.

In sports, many teams have been statistically better on paper, but when they actually had to play the game, the result was not what was expected.  If the President continues to show that he finally remembers what fiscal responsibility means, if Mitch McConnell continues to thump Harry Reid at virtually every turn, and if the party of the elephant uses their long memory when faced with a potential Hillary Clinton presidency, our chances continue to improve for next November.

Dean Barnett, the Chowdah Man himself, is filling in for Hugh...except for a wee bit of snow that has paralyzed the greater Boston area, preventing him from getting to our fine Boston affiliate, WTTT.  Here is what Dean is complaining about.

Personally, I think Dean is wimping out.  I'm from L.A. This traffic is nothing.

Every once in a while, you get caught up in the day to day routine of doing the radio show, and it takes an e-mail like this one from a listener to make you pause and remember how great a country this is, and how thankful we are to be able to do what we do.

Like I said earlier about the Dobson statement.  Romney's speech struck a chord across a lot of ideological and political lines today. 

Shortly after The Speech today in Houston by Mitt Romney, the following press release was issued by Focus On The Family's Dr. James Dobson:

 

James Dobson Declares Values Voters Still Have a Strong Voice

Calls Romney’s speech a “magnificent” reminder of faith’s role in politics and policy 

Colorado Springs, Colo. -- Focus on the Family Action founder and chairman James C. Dobson, Ph.D., issued the following statement today in response to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s speech on “Faith in America”: 

“Gov. Romney’s speech was a magnificent reminder of the role religious faith must play in government and public policy. His delivery was passionate and his message was inspirational. Whether it will answer all the questions and concerns of Evangelical Christian voters is yet to be determined, but the governor is to be commended for articulating the importance of our religious heritage as it relates to today.    

“Many in the media have been busily crafting the obituaries of ‘values voters’ in recent months.  David Kirkpatrick of The New York Times, along with Tom Brokaw, Frank Rich and other liberal journalists, have been predicting a dramatic ‘Evangelical crackup’. They are dead wrong. Religion has already played a major role in this election cycle, and will continue to be evident through’08. The sanctity of human life, the institution of marriage and the care and nurturing of children will be important issues to people of faith as they choose a new generation of leaders. You can take it to the bank.  

“Again, Gov. Romney’s speech served as a reminder that religion has always played a significant role in electoral politics. Candidates who disregard the spiritual heritage of this great nation and its viability today will do so at their peril.”

A great speech that should be received well by any nervous Evangelical voter. It's not an endorsement by Dr. Dobson, but it is clear that the content of the Romney speech struck a chord. 

This aired at 5:41PM EST on Tuesday, December 4th, 2007.  Will CNN condone religious bigotry by continuing to employ Jack Cafferty?